What does the confidence score actually mean?
Two numbers appear next to every pick — the odds and the confidence score. They're answering two different questions.
The odds are the market's own implied probability, worked out from what bookmakers are pricing the outcome at. The confidence score is ours — the analyst's read of the fixture, converted into a percentage, independent of what the market thinks.
When the two line up — short odds and a high confidence score, say — that's generally the strongest signal a pick can carry. When they disagree, that's worth noticing too: either the market knows something the analysis hasn't accounted for, or the analysis has spotted something the market is underpricing. We publish the pick either way and let the track record speak for how that call held up.