We build today’s ACCA using modelled probabilities and transparent context—combining Over/Under, BTTS, Double Chance and HT/FT legs. Our goal is a minimum combined price of 2.00+ with clear reasoning for each selection.
We combine event data, tracking insight and contextual team news to publish transparent, reproducible forecasts—so you can understand why a result is more or less likely, not just what a model says.
xG weights chance quality by location, body part and assist type. We extend this with pressure, carry distance and set-piece profiles to calibrate finishing and prevention.
We model rest days, travel load and rotation windows around continental and cup play. These factors shift tempo and chance creation, especially in congested periods.
High press vs. build-up, cross volume vs. box density, and transition exposure are matched to opponent strengths to adjust base rates.
Calibration is tracked via Brier/Log loss and reliability plots. We publish changes when features or weights are updated.
Coverage spans Premier League, Champions League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and MLS with league-specific tuning for pace, pressing and set-piece profiles.
This page summarises modelled probabilities for the most-used football markets: Over/Under goals, Double Chance (DC), Half-Time (HT) outcomes and Half-Time/Full-Time (HT/FT) combinations. Each percentage reflects event data (xG, shot quality), tactical context and confirmed/probable lineups.
Over 1.5 evaluates the chance that a match reaches at least two total goals by full time. When O1.5 is high, expect a game-state that favours chances (tempo, pressing traps, set-piece threat). Pair it with team news: missing centre-backs or attacking full-backs often move O1.5 more than striker absences.
O3.5 highlights the tail of the goals distribution. A moderate Over 3.5 probability usually signals transition-heavy matchups or set-piece mismatches. A low O3.5 but high O1.5 implies “likely goals, unlikely goal-fest”.
DC condenses result safety into one number. Big DC edges often align with strong non-penalty xG (for/against) differentials and low shot quality conceded. Watch travel and rest days—fatigue drags DC confidence late in congested schedules.
The HT column captures who is most likely to lead at the break (Home/Draw/Away). Teams that start fast, press high, or generate early set-pieces tend to have higher HT Home probabilities than their full-time numbers would suggest. Late-game subs impact FT more than HT.
HT/FT maps the probability of combined states: e.g., H/H (home leads at HT and wins FT), H/D, H/A, D/H, D/D, D/A, A/H, A/D, A/A. Skews toward H/H often come from fast starters with compact low-block control after leading.
Popular combinations include O1.5 + DC (1X), BTTS + O2.5 or Home Win + O1.5. Our tables help you reason about correlated events. For example, a high O1.5 plus high BTTS suggests chance trading, whereas high DC (1X) with low O3.5 can indicate a controlled 1–0/2–0 pattern.
Forecasts quantify likelihoods and don’t guarantee outcomes. Use them as decision support, set limits and keep football enjoyable.